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- The Study of Frost Occurrence in Free State Province of South Africa
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The results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test yielded a value of 0. Relatively late cessation of frost is evident over the central parts and high lying areas in the southeastern, eastern, and northeastern parts vicinity of Wepener, Zastron, and Bloemfontein. As shown in Figure 3 , the extremely late cessation of frost over Free State occurred between 26 October and 26 November 6 October and 26 November [26 September and 26 November] for light, medium, and heavy frost, respectively.
This is an indication that frost risk is high in Free State province with a chance of frost damage well within the rainfall season with the potential of damaging crops at the vegetative stage [ 5 ]. Time series of cessation of frost shows a lot of variation from one year to another with an average standard deviation of 19 days for all the frost thresholds Figure 3. Onset of frost for all three thresholds varies greatly over the years with the average standard deviation across all the stations for light, medium, and heavy frost of 13, 14, and 16, days, respectively Figure 4.
Extremely early onset of frost ranges from 18 March to 29 March 29 March to 14 April [1 April to 25 April] for light, medium, and heavy frost, respectively. This implies that frost-sensitive crops have to be fully matured by mid-March in order to avoid frost damage Figure 4. The frost-free period spatial pattern follows that of the onset and cessation of frost. Areas of short frost-free season are mostly over the southeastern parts, close to the escarpments along the border with Lesotho.
Year to year variation of frost-free period is high over Free State province, as depicted in Figure 5 , with average standard deviation of 23, 25, and 26 days for light, medium, and heavy frost, respectively. Negative trends show that cessation of frost is becoming earlier over time implying that planting of crops can be early depending on the soil water content status. In most places, cessation of frost becomes earlier by an average of 2, 3, and 4 days per decade for light, medium, and heavy frost. In contrast, significant positive trends are obtained in Virginia and Ficksburg whereby cessation of frost is becoming later by an average of 3 days per decade for all the frost thresholds.
Onset of frost mostly shows nonsignificant positive trends in most parts of Free State with the exception of Virginia and Ficksburg showing a significant negative trend. Positive trends are an indication that minimum temperatures are increasing with time over the region, implying an increase of favourable conditions for crops that are sensitive to low temperatures. In contrast, significant negative trends are evident in Ficksburg and Virginia at a rate ranging from 2 to 6 days per decade. Frost analysis is important because knowledge of the frequency and timing of frosts will help reduce the risk of frost damage in vulnerable areas [ 19 ].
Probable dates for the first frost and last frost of the growing season can also help farmers in preventing or reducing the damage to agricultural produce caused by frost [ 11 ].
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Consequently, knowledge of the frost-free period can be used as a proxy for the length of time available for crop production [ 20 ]. The assessment of frost occurrence in Free State showed considerable variation from one place to another owing to the vast differences in topography over the province. The results of the frost risk assessment show earlier frost onset, late cessation of frost, and shorter growing period over the northeastern, central, eastern, and southeastern parts. These areas are more vulnerable to frost especially if planting is early and this forces farmers to delay their planting resulting in shorter growing periods suitable for short or medium cultivars [ 5 ].
Late planted crops in these areas are also in danger of not achieving full maturity before suffering from damage resulting in poor quality yield or production loss in extreme cases. The first frost at the onset of a frost period causes damage to crops at their later stages of development, while the last frost at the cessation of the frost period damages seedlings and young plants [ 11 , 21 ].
Farmers in these regions are advised to plant short season varieties taking into consideration all the frost indices. Trends in frost indices are mostly favourable for increasing frost-free period implying that the planting of relatively longer cultivars might be suitable in the future depending on the rate of frost-free period increase. The length of the frost-free period denotes the growing period, and, in Free State, it is mostly between days and over days, depending on the temperature threshold and locality.
Long frost-free periods are evident over patches in the far western and northeastern Free State. These areas have low frost risk but it does not mean they are the most desirable places for planting maize or any other crops sensitive to frost damage under rain-fed conditions as there are other climate risks like rainy season length and agricultural drought that have to be considered [ 22 ]. In Free State, the frost differences in the risk levels between onset and cessation of frost were mostly 10 days from one risk level to another at all the temperature thresholds which does not denote vast temporal differences to the advantage of crop management in the province.
Targeting of maturity before the onset of frost should be the practice without compromising on crop yield. In some places, like the eastern Free State, careful consideration of the cultivar which has a high potential but requires relatively lower heat units accumulation is desirable. Overall, very late cessation of frost occurs over the east and southeastern Free State.
These areas are also characterized by very early onsets resulting in shorter frost-free periods as compared to other regions. In these areas, planting early would definitely harm the seedlings while planting very late would result in crops not attaining their full maturity before the risk of frost increases. The window for planting is therefore relatively short in these places. In contrast, most parts of the northern, western, and southwestern Free State experience relatively long growing periods making them ideal for planting long-season crops providing that other climate requirements have low risk in those areas.
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In general, the results show low frost risk in the far western parts of the province, increasing gradually towards the east where the late frost cessation and early onset risks are high. Trend analysis showed a tendency of positive trends of frost-free period in some areas implying an increase in minimum temperatures with time.
The rate of increase in frost-free period ranges from 1 to 5 days per decade depending on the location and severity of frost.
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The authors declare that there is no conflict of interests regarding the publication of this paper. The authors are grateful for funding by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Project no. The authors thank Dr. Thomas Fyfield of the Agricultural Research Council for editing the manuscript. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. We will be providing unlimited waivers of publication charges for accepted research articles as well as case reports and case series related to COVID Review articles are excluded from this waiver policy.
Sign up here as a reviewer to help fast-track new submissions. Journal overview. Special Issues. Academic Editor: Anthony R. Received 05 Apr Revised 16 Jul Accepted 02 Aug Published 05 Sep Abstract The study investigated the cessation, onset, and duration of light, medium, and heavy frost in Free State province of South Africa using minimum temperatures from to Introduction Maize Zea mays is a major crop in Sub-Saharan Africa as it forms a staple food of most people in the region [ 1 ]. Data and Methods 2. Table 1.
Information for climate stations in Free State province used in the frost assessment study. Figure 1. Distribution of the weather stations used in the analysis of frost in Free State province of South Africa. Table 2. Figure 2. Probability fit with Normal distribution for cessation of light frost in Bethlehem. Table 3. Figure 3. Time series of cessation of frost in Julian days from to for a Bethlehem, b Bloemfontein, c Bothaville, d Fauresmith, e Ficksburg, f Frankfort, g Virginia, h Wepener, and i Zastron. Table 4.
Figure 4. Time series of onset of frost in Julian days from to for a Bethlehem, b Bloemfontein, c Bothaville, d Fauresmith, e Ficksburg, f Frankfort, g Virginia, h Wepener, and i Zastron.
The Study of Frost Occurrence in Free State Province of South Africa
Table 5. Figure 5. Time series of frost-free duration in days from to for a Bethlehem, b Bloemfontein, c Bothaville, d Fauresmith, e Ficksburg, f Frankfort, g Virginia, h Wepener, and i Zastron. Table 6. Trends in frost indices for Free State province of South Africa.
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