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There is low confidence in threshold temperatures for ice sheet instabilities and the rates of GMSL rise they can produce. Sea level rise is not globally uniform and varies regionally. Subsidence caused by human activities is currently the most important cause of relative sea level rise RSL change in many delta regions. While the comparative importance of climate-driven RSL rise will increase over time, these findings on anthropogenic subsidence imply that a consideration of local processes is critical for projections of sea level impacts at local scales high confidence.
Many low-lying cities and small islands at most latitudes will experience such events annually by Greenhouse gas GHG mitigation envisioned in low-emission scenarios e. Low-emission scenarios lead to slower rates of SLR and allow for a wider range of adaptation options. For the first half of the 21st century differences in ESL events among the scenarios are small, facilitating adaptation planning. Non-climatic anthropogenic drivers will continue to increase the exposure and vulnerability of coastal communities to future SLR and ESL events in the absence of major adaptation efforts compared to today high confidence.
The expected impacts of SLR on coastal ecosystems over the course of the century include habitat contraction, loss of functionality and biodiversity, and lateral and inland migration. Impacts will be exacerbated in cases of land reclamation and where anthropogenic barriers prevent inland migration of marshes and mangroves and limit the availability and relocation of sediment high confidence. Under favourable conditions, marshes and mangroves have been found to keep pace with fast rates of SLR e.
In the absence of adaptation, more intense and frequent ESL events, together with trends in coastal development will increase expected annual flood damages by orders of magnitude by high confidence. However, well designed coastal protection is very effective in reducing expected damages and cost efficient for urban and densely populated regions, but generally unaffordable for rural and poorer areas high confidence. Effective protection requires investments on the order of tens to several hundreds of billions of USD yr -1 globally high confidence. While investments are generally cost efficient for densely populated and urban areas high confidence , rural and poorer areas will be challenged to afford such investments with relative annual costs for some small island states amounting to several percent of GDP high confidence.
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Even with well-designed hard protection, the risk of possibly disastrous consequences in the event of failure of defences remains. Risk related to SLR including erosion, flooding and salinisation is expected to significantly increase by the end of this century along all low-lying coasts in the absence of major additional adaptation efforts very high confidence. While only urban atoll islands and some Arctic communities are expected to experience moderate to high risk relative to today in a low emission pathway, almost high to very high risks are expected in all low-lying coastal settings at the upper end of the likely range for high emission pathways medium confidence.
While a slower rate of SLR enables greater opportunities for adapting, adaptation benefits are also expected to vary between coastal settings.
Although ambitious adaptation will not necessarily eradicate end-century SLR risk medium confidence , it will help to buy time in many locations and therefore help to lay a robust foundation for adaptation beyond All types of responses to SLR, including protection, accommodation, EbA, advance and retreat, have important and synergistic roles to play in an integrated and sequenced response to SLR high confidence.
Hard protection and advance building into the sea are economically efficient in most urban contexts facing land scarcity high confidence , but can lead to increased exposure in the long term. Where sufficient space is available, EbA can both reduce coastal risks and provide multiple other benefits medium confidence. Accommodation such as flood proofing buildings and EWS for ESL events are often both low-cost and highly cost-efficient in all contexts high confidence.
Where coastal risks are already high, and population size and density are low, or in the aftermath of a coastal disaster, retreat may be especially effective, albeit socially, culturally and politically challenging. Technical limits to hard protection are expected to be reached under high emission scenarios RCP8. Economic challenges to hard protection increase with higher sea levels and will make adaptation unaffordable before technical limits are reached high confidence.
For corals, limits may be reached during this century, due to ocean acidification and ocean warming, and for tidal wetlands due to pollution and infrastructure limiting their inland migration.
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Limits to accommodation are expected to occur well before limits to protection occur. Limits to retreat are uncertain, reflecting research gaps. Social barriers including governance challenges to adaptation are already encountered. Choosing and implementing responses to SLR presents society with profound governance challenges and difficult social choices, which are inherently political and value laden high confidence. The large uncertainties about post SLR, and the substantial impact expected, challenge established planning and decision making practises and introduce the need for coordination within and between governance levels and policy domains.
SLR responses also raise equity concerns about marginalising those most vulnerable and could potentially spark or compound social conflict high confidence. Despite the large uncertainties about post SLR, adaptation decisions can be made now, facilitated by using decision analysis methods specifically designed to address uncertainty high confidence.
These methods favour flexible responses i.
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They use robustness criteria i. One example is adaptation pathway analysis, which has emerged as a low-cost tool to assess long-term coastal responses as sequences of adaptive decisions in the face of dynamic coastal risk characterised by deep uncertainty medium evidence, high agreement. The range of SLR to be considered in decisions depends on the risk tolerance of stakeholders, with stakeholders whose risk tolerance is low also considering SLR higher than the likely range.
Adaptation experience to date demonstrates that using a locally appropriate combination of decision analysis, land use planning, public participation and conflict resolution approaches can help to address the governance challenges faced in responding to SLR high confidence. Effective SLR responses depend, first, on taking a long-term perspective when making short-term decisions, explicitly accounting for uncertainty of locality-specific risks beyond high confidence , and building governance capabilities to tackle the complexity of SLR risk medium evidence, high agreement.
Second, improved coordination of SLR responses across scales, sectors and policy domains can help to address SLR impacts and risk high confidence. Third, prioritising consideration of social vulnerability and equity underpins efforts to promote fair and just climate resilience and sustainable development high confidence and can be helped by creating safe community arenas for meaningful public deliberation and conflict resolution medium evidence, high agreement.
Finally, public awareness and understanding about SLR risks and responses can be improved by drawing on local, indigenous and scientific knowledge systems, together with social learning about locality-specific SLR risk and response potential high confidence. This chapter assesses the literature published since the AR5 on past and future contributions to global, regional and ESL changes, associated risk to low-lying islands, coasts, cities and settlements, and response options and pathways to resilience and sustainable development along the coast. The chapter follows the risk framework of AR5, in which risk is assessed in terms of hazard, exposure and vulnerability Cross-Chapter Box 1 Chapter 1; Box 4.
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For understanding responses to climate-change induced SLR, two aspects of sea level are important to note initially:. After an increase of sea level from 1—2 mm yr —1 in most regions over the past century, rates of 3—4 mm yr —1 are now being experienced that will further increase to 4—9 mm yr —1 under RCP2. This includes, for instance, those parts of the intertropical low-lying coasts that are currently exposed to storm surges only infrequently.
Hence, additional adaptation is needed irrespective of the uncertainties in future global GHG emissions and the Antarctic contribution to SLR. Beyond , uncertainty in climate change induced SLR increases substantially due to uncertainties in emission scenarios and the associated climate changes, and the response of the AIS in a warmer world. Combining process-model based studies in which there is medium confidence , it is found that GMSL is projected to rise between 0.
The range that needs to be considered for planning and implementing coastal responses depends on the risk tolerance of stakeholders i. Stakeholders that are risk tolerant e. Stakeholders with a low risk tolerance e. Process-model based studies cannot yet provide this information, but expert elicitation studies show that a GMSL of 2 m in cannot be ruled out 4. Despite the large uncertainty in late 21st century SLR, progress in adaptation planning and implementation is feasible today and may be economically beneficial.
Many coastal decisions with time horizons of decades to over a century are made today e. Decision-analysis methods specifically targeting situations of large uncertainty are available and, combined with suitable planning, public participation and conflict resolution processes, can improve outcomes high confidence ; 4. For example, adaptation pathway analysis recognises and enables sequenced long-term decision making in the face of dynamic coastal risk characterised by deep uncertainty medium evidence, high agreement ; 4.
The use of these decision-analysis tools can be integrated into statutory land use or spatial planning provisions to formalise these decisions and enable effective implementation by relevant governing authorities 4. Beyond , sea level will continue to rise for centuries and will remain elevated for thousands of years high confidence; 4. Only a few modelling studies are available for SLR beyond On a millennial time scale, this difference is about 10 metres in some model simulations, whereas it is only several decimetres at the end of 21st century.
With strong mitigation efforts RCP2. Regardless, ambitious and sustained adaptation efforts are needed to reduce risks. Figure 4. The inset shows an assessment of the likely range of the projections for RCP2. Projections for longer time scales are highly uncertain but a range is provided 4. For context, results are shown from other estimation approaches in and The two sets of two bars labelled B19 are from an expert elicitation for the Antarctic component Bamber et al.
S18 also shows the likely range. Rising mean and increasingly extreme sea level threaten coastal zones through a range of coastal hazards including i the permanent submergence of land by higher mean sea levels or mean high tides; ii more frequent or intense coastal flooding; iii enhanced coastal erosion; iv loss and change of coastal ecosystems; v salinisation of soils, ground and surface water; and vi impeded drainage.
At the century scale and without adaptation, the vast majority of low-lying islands, coasts and communities face substantial risk from these coastal hazards, whether they are urban or rural, continental or island, at any latitude, and irrespective of their level of development Section 4. In the absence of an ambitious increase in adaptation efforts compared to those currently underway, high to very high risks are expected in many coastal geographies at the upper end of the RCP8.
These include resource-rich coastal cities, urban atoll islands, densely populated deltas, and Arctic communities Chapter 4 Box 4; Figure 4. At the same time coastal protection is very effective and cost-efficient for cities but not for less densely populated rural areas. Some geographies, such as urban atoll islands and Arctic communities face high risk even under RCP2.
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In many places, however, non SLR-related, local environmental and human dimensions of exposure and vulnerability play a critical role in increasing exposure and vulnerability to coastal hazards Section 4. For example, the ability of morphological and ecological systems Sections 4. Hence, an important near term response to RSL rise is to reduce these adverse environmental and human dimensions of exposure and vulnerability. In addition, the drivers of exposure and vulnerability vary across different coastal contexts ranging from resource-rich cities to small islands Sections 4.