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The study investigated the cessation, onset, and duration of light, medium, and heavy frost in Free State province of South Africa using minimum temperatures from to Trends in the frost indices were assessed using the Man-Kendall test. Onset of frost varied spatially with earlier onset over the northern, eastern, and southeastern parts.
Areas of early onset also experience late cessation of frost resulting in shorter growing period of less than days. The western parts have longer growing period exceeding days due to earlier cessation of frost and relatively late onset of frost. Trends for the frost-free period growing period show contrasting negative and positive trends with isolated significant trends. Maize Zea mays is a major crop in Sub-Saharan Africa as it forms a staple food of most people in the region [ 1 ].
However, the average maize yield for the province varies greatly from one year to another, mainly, due to climate variability [ 4 ]. Overall the environmental conditions and natural resources of Free State are conducive for maize production but there are also agroclimatological hazards that have a detrimental effect on production [ 4 , 5 ]. These restrictive occurrences include drought, late cessation of frost that damages early planted crops, early onset of frost affecting crops at later stages of their growth, sporadic hail occurrence, and low temperatures during the growing period resulting in reduced maize crop production [ 6 , 7 ].
Apart from drought, farmers consider frost as the major hazard that influences their year to year production [ 8 ]. On an annual basis across most frost-prone countries, onset of frost in autumn and cessation of frost in spring cause damage to late planted or long-season crops and early planted crops during the early vegetative stage, respectively [ 9 ]. There are four main characteristics of frosts: the onset of frost or first frost date, cessation of frost or last frost date, duration of the frost-free or frost period, and the frequency of frosts. The cessation of frost in southern Africa marks the beginning of the growing period which occurs mostly during the months of September and October, while the onset of frost indicates that the growing period of most summer crops is coming to an end, which normally occurs in April, May, and June [ 5 ].
Studies by Tait and Zheng [ 10 ], Rahimi et al. Due to the interannual variability of frost, continuous updating of frost dates is necessary to reflect recent climatic events [ 12 ]. Different temperature thresholds are used for determining frost. For example, Zenoni et al. Trasmonte et al.
The threshold to use has to be specific according to a crop of interest but different thresholds can also be used to show severity of frost risk or to accommodate a variety of crops. The risk of frost varies greatly in Free State province due to the contrasting topography and geographical aspect. Thus, there is a need to investigate the variability of the frost indices in the region and their impact on agricultural production.
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These thresholds have been determined based on previous studies in other regions [ 11 , 13 — 17 ]. Three main indices were determined for each threshold: onset of frost, cessation of frost, and duration of frost-free period. Trends in these indices were assessed at selected stations in Free State with data from to The daily minimum temperature dataset was used in the analysis for determination of frost risk assessment in Free State province. The data used in the study was recorded inside a Stevenson screen elevated at 1.
The data was arranged by agricultural season July to June. Where necessary, the data was patched with the UK traditional method which uses the nearest neighbour stations up to five to determine average temperature values in a particular month and then uses the differences target station long-term mean temperature — neighbour station long-term mean temperature in values to patch within that month [ 18 ].
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A patched value is taken from the average of all the predicted values from each nearby station. The data was arranged according to agricultural season from July to June of the following year. For each season the last day of frost in spring cessation of frost and the first day of frost in autumn onset of frost were determined at each of the stations and for each year. The frost dates were converted to Julian days to facilitate statistical computations.
The frost-free period for each agricultural season was then calculated for light, medium, and heavy frost occurrences as the number of days between last and first frost. The frost-free period is the most important index which marks the length of the growing period for most crops in the high lying regions. Minitab software was used to determine the appropriate probability distribution for all the variables onset, cessation, and frost period at each station.
The onset of frost, cessation of frost, and frost-free period were determined for different probability levels based on the selected distribution to assess frost occurrence in Free State province. To clearly show the risk associated with the onset of frost, cessation of frost, frost period, and frost-free period, the exceedance probability was used for the cessation of frost while the nonexceedance probability was used for the other frost indices.
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Frost indices varied widely throughout Free State province. Onset of frost for all the thresholds mainly followed the Normal distribution in Free State province. Figure 2 shows an example of probability fitting for the Bethlehem station. The results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test yielded a value of 0. Relatively late cessation of frost is evident over the central parts and high lying areas in the southeastern, eastern, and northeastern parts vicinity of Wepener, Zastron, and Bloemfontein.
As shown in Figure 3 , the extremely late cessation of frost over Free State occurred between 26 October and 26 November 6 October and 26 November [26 September and 26 November] for light, medium, and heavy frost, respectively. This is an indication that frost risk is high in Free State province with a chance of frost damage well within the rainfall season with the potential of damaging crops at the vegetative stage [ 5 ].
Time series of cessation of frost shows a lot of variation from one year to another with an average standard deviation of 19 days for all the frost thresholds Figure 3.
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Onset of frost for all three thresholds varies greatly over the years with the average standard deviation across all the stations for light, medium, and heavy frost of 13, 14, and 16, days, respectively Figure 4. Extremely early onset of frost ranges from 18 March to 29 March 29 March to 14 April [1 April to 25 April] for light, medium, and heavy frost, respectively. This implies that frost-sensitive crops have to be fully matured by mid-March in order to avoid frost damage Figure 4. The frost-free period spatial pattern follows that of the onset and cessation of frost.
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Areas of short frost-free season are mostly over the southeastern parts, close to the escarpments along the border with Lesotho. Year to year variation of frost-free period is high over Free State province, as depicted in Figure 5 , with average standard deviation of 23, 25, and 26 days for light, medium, and heavy frost, respectively.
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Negative trends show that cessation of frost is becoming earlier over time implying that planting of crops can be early depending on the soil water content status. Length of Visible Light. Length of Day. Tomorrow will be 1 minutes 48 seconds longer. Oct Nov 8.
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